Conflict overview
Despite a U.S.-brokered ceasefire after a 12-day intense exchange of missiles and drones, tensions between Iran and Israel continue. Israel reports that Iran launched missiles and drones just before the ceasefire took effect, killing four civilians in Beersheba. Iran denies these claims. Both countries remain locked in a cycle of conditional adherence to the truce and retaliatory strikes, leaving the situation highly unstable.

Civilian impact
The pre-ceasefire strike in Beersheba killed at least four people and injured around 20. Rescue teams faced challenging conditions due to bomblet explosions. Israeli officials denounced it as a breach of the ceasefire and warned of further retaliation, though U.S. President Trump has urged calm.

Ceasefire fragility
Israel resumed airstrikes after intercepting a suspected Iranian missile attack. Iran flatly denied launching new waves of missiles after the ceasefire. Both nations accused each other of violating the agreement, hinting at renewed hostilities.

Turkey’s diplomatic role
Turkey has been engaging both nations diplomatically. President Erdoğan condemned Israeli actions in Syria and Gaza, suggesting Israel risks wider regional conflict. At the same time, Ankara is coordinating technical deconfliction talks with Israel over operations in Syria. Turkey is also working diplomatically to position itself as a mediator and prevent an unchecked escalation.

Regional dynamics
Turkey continues to balance criticism of Israel's Gaza campaign with behind-the-scenes dialogue on Syria. An Israeli advisory report highlights potential future security concerns involving Turkish-backed groups in Syria. Erdogan and Iran’s foreign minister have both called for restraint, warning against regional escalation.

Bottom line
The ceasefire remains fragile, with both Iran and Israel accusing each other of violations and launching new strikes. Civilian casualties are mounting, and Turkey is playing a dual role—firmly criticizing Israel publicly while maintaining quiet technical communications and pushing diplomacy. The risk of a wider regional conflict remains high as all parties tread carefully amid ongoing tensions.